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23.03.2006 Thursday - random thoughs about luck
The need for "fortunate randomness".
Well... sure: you have to help your luck, otherwise it will get to
nothing. But it's still randomness: the complex composition of events that lead
you to an advantageous situation. Often too complex to be described or even understood.
On the other hand... rationale.
In an example of good luck, a person winning a lottery would generally be considered lucky,
although a rationalist might point out that there was bound to be a winner sooner or later,
and there was actually nothing lucky about someone winning - it was merely a probabilistic event.
It is doubtful that the winner would agree with that analysis, however.
The belief in luck as a supernatural phenomenon is generally regarded by rationalists
as a form of magical thinking. However, there is evidence that people who believe
themselves to have good luck are more able to take advantage of fortunate chance events
in their lives, and to compensate for unfortunate chance events in their lives, than
people who believe that they have bad luck. This appears to be the result of positive
thinking altering their responses to these events.
If "good" and "bad" events occur at random to everyone, believers in good luck will
experience a net gain in their fortunes, and vice versa for believers in bad luck.
This is clearly likely to be self-reinforcing. Thus, although untrue, a belief in good
luck may actually be an adaptive meme.
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" - Seneca, Roman Dramatist
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" - Obi-Wan Kenobi.
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